With all that came afterward — Jose Altuve’s homer, Josh Jung’s two, Leody Taveras robbing a homer, Michael Brantley stealing a run — it’s easy to forget the sequence that awakened the Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS.
It began with a literal back-foot breaking ball. Yordan Alvarez led off the second inning against Max Scherzer and fell behind 0-2 before Scherzer threw a waste pitch so far inside that it went behind Alvarez’s front foot and hit him flush on the back foot. Scherzer got an out, then gifted a walk to Kyle Tucker, who entered the game batting .091 this postseason. Mauricio Dubón’s single loaded the bases. Scherzer was on the ropes early in his return from the injured list.
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The trouble could have ended there.
Scherzer hit a few spots.
Jeremy Peña popped out.
Creed was in the house. (“Go MLB, baby!”)
Scherzer needed only to retire Martín Maldonado, one of the worst-hitting regulars in baseball. Instead, he bounced a slider that got past catcher Jonah Heim and ushered in the first run of the game. Then Scherzer gripped a fastball. The only big-league hitter who struggled more against four-seamers this season than Maldonado (-16 Run Value) was the Brewers’ Brice Turang (-17 Run Value). But even a bad fastball hitter can turn on one delivered directly down the pipe. That’s exactly what Maldonado did. In the span of one at-bat, the Astros turned a scoreless game into a three-run lead. And so much of that sequence was caused by Scherzer’s unforced errors.
These Astros don’t miss many mistakes.
The Rangers didn’t roll over in their 8-5 loss in Game 3. Far from it. This was more about the Astros coming alive. Cristian Javier didn’t allow a hit or a run until the fifth inning. Altuve singled, homered and sent two more balls to the warning track. Tucker doubled and walked three times. Alvarez had a homer stolen, then answered with a bases-loaded, two-run single and later added another single. Maldonado had two hits. Dubón had three.
This is a series again. The Rangers remain in the driver’s seat, with the next two games at home. But the Astros, for whatever reason, thrive on the road. They reminded us in Arlington that they’re still here, and they’ll be a tough out.
AL Championship Series Game 4: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Series: The Rangers lead, 2-1.
Start time: 8:03 p.m. ET on FS1
Pitching matchup: LHP Andrew Heaney vs. RHP José Urquidy
Game 4 pitching matchup
Astros starter: RHP José Urquidy
2023 stats: 3-3, 5.29 ERA, 63 innings, 45 strikeouts, 1.43 WHIP
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Urquidy got the ball in Game 4 of the ALDS against Minnesota, and he delivered one of his best starts of the season. (We’re dealing, admittedly, with a somewhat small sample since Urquidy missed half the season with a shoulder injury.) Urquidy knocked the Twins out of the playoffs, at their own place, by tossing 5 2/3 innings of two-run baseball. He allowed just three hits, two of which were solo homers, and had six strikeouts to only one walk. His average fastball velocity was up a half mile per hour in that game, to 93.6, and he got a whopping 19 whiffs.
The Astros are in a different position this time, fighting from behind in this series instead of trying to finish one off. If the Rangers look dialed in early against Urquidy, manager Dusty Baker won’t have long to let his starter work things out. Urquidy typically survives more on soft contact than swings and misses. He’s going up against a ballclub barreling a lot of baseballs lately, and the Rangers aren’t nearly as strikeout-prone as the Twins were. Urquidy didn’t face Texas in the 2023 regular season, but he owns a 2.82 ERA in seven career starts against them.
Rangers starter: LHP Andrew Heaney (probably followed by RHP Dane Dunning)
Heaney’s 2023 stats: 10-6, 4.15 ERA, 147 1/3 innings, 151 strikeouts, 1.38 WHIP
Dunning’s 2023 stats: 12-7, 3.70 ERA, 172 2/3 innings, 140 strikeouts, 1.26 WHIP
Heaney hasn’t come close to matching his 2023 success, when he had a 3.10 ERA and a 35.5 percent strikeout rate. His strikeout rate dropped to 23.6 percent this season, in large part because he’s completely lost his slider. Heaney got only one strikeout and three swings and misses against the Orioles, though he minimized traffic and kept the ball in the ballpark. Heaney started four times against Houston this season and had a 2.75 ERA against them. On one hand, that could be a good omen. On the other, it’s a lot of exposure.
Heaney and Dunning were a piggy-back tandem in the Rangers’ ALDS Game 1 win in Baltimore, combining to hold the Orioles to two runs in 5 2/3 innings. So it stands to reason that a similar approach would be employed here.
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Dunning is a sinker-baller who won’t out-stuff most starters, but he was solid — at times shockingly so — in the Rangers’ rotation this season. Dunning averages 91 mph on his sinker and relies on a six-pitch mix to keep hitters guessing. He struggled this season with left-handed hitters, against whom he goes heavy on cutters and changeups, and so the Astros should have some favorable matchups. Dunning pitched twice in relief against the Astros this season. It went … poorly. He allowed nine runs in seven innings.
Game 4 X-factor
Yordan Alvarez
The sight of Alvarez going to his knees after taking 88 mph to the back foot in Game 3 must have sent shivers through the Astros dugout. Because the Astros can’t afford to lose Alvarez, not against a club like the Rangers that can keep pace with them, homer for homer. But he wasn’t hurt, after all. He went right back to smacking baseballs around the yard.
Through seven games this postseason, Alvarez has scored 11 runs and driven in 10. He has two doubles, six homers and a laugh-out-loud slash line: .407/.467/1.148.
That’s a 1.615 OPS.
And, if not for Taveras, it’d be even higher!
LEODY TAVERAS ROBS A HOME RUN! #ALCS pic.twitter.com/HkCDT4JGsp
— MLB (@MLB) October 19, 2023
Notable quotable
Prior to his three-hit game, Dubón was asked about being traded from the Giants to the Astros for backup catcher Michael Papierski in May 2022.
“Obviously the opportunity was the best thing for my career,” Dubón said. “I was telling somebody today, I got smarter, I got a little stronger. But my ability hasn’t changed. For me, it was a matter of getting a chance. The Astros gave me a chance to get out there and show people what I can do.”
GO DEEPER
Rosenthal: Martín Maldonado had the custom cleats, but it's Cristian Javier who made a statement for Astros
(Top photo of Alvarez: Mark Blinch / Getty Images))
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